Atlantic & Caribbean Outlook

National Hurricane Center Miami

        
000
FZNT02 KNHC 210242
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC THU SEP 21 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC THU SEP 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT SEP 23.

.WARNINGS.

...ATLC AND CARIBBEAN HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE MARIA NEAR 19.2N 67.9W 959 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 21 
MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT 
GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM NE AND SW 
QUADRANTS...110 NM NW QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT.SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE...150 NM SW QUADRANT 
AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 47 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 
NM NE AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER ATLC WATERS S OF 31N BETWEEN 62W AND 
70W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 61W AND 71W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. NUMEROUS STRONG 
WITHIN 150 NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 62W 
AND 71W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIA NEAR 21.0N 70.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 120 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 120 
NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER...WITH SEAS TO 51 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. REMAINDER ATLC WATERS OUTSIDE BAHAMAS...S OF 
31N BETWEEN 63W AND 76W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIA NEAR 23.7N 71.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 140 NM E SEMICIRCLE...100 NM SW QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 360 NM NW AND 200 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER OUTSIDE BAHAMAS...WITH SEAS TO 54 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES...WINDS 20 
TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT. REMAINDER OPEN ATLC WATERS S OF 31N 
BETWEEN 63W AND 80W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIA NEAR 26.8N 72.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIA NEAR 29.5N 72.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIA NEAR 32.0N 71.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.


.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES...REMNANT OF LEE...NEAR 19N47.5W 1009 MB. WITHIN 180 
NM NE QUADRANT SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SE 
SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 23N49W 1015 MB. WITHIN 120 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SE SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.