Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141129
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
formed Tropical Depression Nineteen, located over the western
Caribbean Sea.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen are
issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT4.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192024)
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 7:00 AM EST Thu Nov 14 the center of Nineteen was located near 15.9, -82.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 3A
Issued at 700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024000 WTNT34 KNHC 141148 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 82.2W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 82.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion should continue through today, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024000 WTNT24 KNHC 140846 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.7W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.7W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 81.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024000 WTNT44 KNHC 140848 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been improving. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt. Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression. This is supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which shows a well-defined circulation. The intensity is set to 30 kt based on the Dvorak estimates. Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later today. A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras, and possibly inland. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak steering currents late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Very little change was made to the first 3 days of the track forecast. Beyond day 3, there has been a notable westward shift in the track guidance. The NHC forecast is a bit west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as the bulk of the latest model guidance. Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities. However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much land interaction with Honduras occurs. The majority of the models are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However, if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance envelope beyond 36 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
729
FONT14 KNHC 140848
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 6(14)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 9(25) 6(31)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 3(23)
GUANAJA 34 X 6( 6) 25(31) 14(45) 21(66) 3(69) 1(70)
GUANAJA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 10(22) 2(24) 1(25)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
S SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:03 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 09:22:46 GMT
