Atlantic & Caribbean Outlook

National Hurricane Center Miami

        
000
AGXX40 KNHC 290754
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1233 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

A thermal trough will develop late each afternoon over the 
Yucatan Peninsula, and shift w across the southwestern gulf 
waters, generally to s of 24N between 90W and 93W, during the 
overnight and early daylight hours, and gradually lose identity 
along about 94W by late each morning. Expect a ne-e-se 15-20 kt 
wind shift along the trough axis, except 20 to 25 kt along the n 
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, with guidance 
hinting that these brief strong conditions will develop again on 
Thu and Fri evenings. Expect seas to build briefly to 6 ft just 
w of the strong winds.

A surface high will meander over the far ne gulf waters through 
Fri night with moderate southerly return flow over the waters w 
of 88W, increasing to fresh breeze each evening, except locally 
strong se flow forecast just offshore of Veracruz Mexico. Expect 
3 to 5 ft seas throughout the period. However, guidance is 
suggesting the pressure gradient will tighten Thu night with a 
swath of strong se wind from 21N to 27N along 92W at sunrise Fri.


Light and variable winds will surround the high center, with 
light to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast e of 88W through 
Fri night, except becoming a fresh breeze across the Fl 
Straights during the evenings. Widespread fog observed, with 
visibilities of 1 to 3 miles, over the nw gulf this morning, 
will be carried in weather grids ahead of convection currently 
inland but shifting e with time.
   
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

Atlc high pressure will support fresh e trades, with 5-8 ft 
seas, across the central Caribbean through Tue morning, with 
locally strong nocturnal trades within about 180 nm of the nw 
coast of Colombia, and across the Gulf of Venezuela. The 
pressure gradient will tighten on Tue night, with strong e winds 
expanding n from the Colombian coast to along 16N between about 
70W and 78W on Wed, and expanding further n and further w on Thu 
and Fri with seas building to 11 ft near 13N75W. Strong 
nocturnal e to se trades forecast across the Gulf of Honduras 
through Fri night. Tropical waves over the e Caribbean and over 
the tropical waters e of the Windwards, will continue westward 
accompanied by a moderate to fresh ne-e-se wind shift and only a 
slight enhancement of convection. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A ridge will extend e to w along 26N later today where it will
meander through Tue, then shift n to along 28N on Tue night and
Wed and along 29N on Wed night and Thu and along 30N on Fri.
Moderate to fresh easterlies are expected s of 23N, except 
becoming a strong e breeze along the n coast of Hispaniola 
during the evenings. Moderate sw flow forecast n of the ridge. 

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.