Atlantic & Caribbean Outlook

National Hurricane Center Miami

        
000
AGXX40 KNHC 221829
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
229 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A prefrontal trough bisects the Gulf near 90W. Light to moderate
SE winds cover the area from 90W eastward. Light to gentle winds
cover the Gulf to the west of 90W. The prefrontal trough will 
migrate east ahead of a cold front that will arrive on the Texas 
coast this evening. The cold front will cross the Gulf from NW to
SE by dawn on Wed. Winds behind the front are expected to reach 
gale force near Veracruz Mexico from around noon on Monday to 
early Tue morning. Latest forecast issuance continues to favor 
the GFS which best handles the coastal terrain of Mexico. 20-25 
knot winds will develop over the NW corner of the Gulf during the
late night hours of Sunday and early morning hours of Monday, as
the front proceeds SE through the central Gulf. 20 to 25 knot 
winds will develop along the western coastal sections of Mexico, 
within 90 nm to 150 nm of the coast from 25N southward, during 
the early morning hours of Monday into Tuesday afternoon, as far 
east as 92W. A secondary push of colder air into the gulf will 
cause the coverage of 20 to 25 kt winds to expand over the SE 
half of the Gulf Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. 
Strong high pressure will then build SE over the northern Gulf by
Thu. Light to moderate winds are generally expected over the 
Gulf on Thu and Fri.
     
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W... 

A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula is moving westward 
away from the Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is present over the Caribbean west of 85W. The wave 
will weaken and dissipate continue moving west and carry the 
associated weather with it.

The tropical wave is combining with a ridge of high pressure 
over the western Atlc to generate a large area of fresh to strong
winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft over much of the Caribbean. This 
area of winds and seas will diminish by Tue afternoon as a cold 
front heads SE from the United States Mainland. This front will 
enter the NW Caribbean on Wed morning, then stall on Thursday. 
Prevailing winds over the Caribbean are expected to remain light 
to moderate on Thu and Fri with weak ridging remaining in place 
to the north. A surface trough will develop over the western 
Caribbean on Fri.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Strong high pres building over the W Atlc will maintain fresh to
locally strong E to SE winds, especially S of 22N through 
Monday. A cold front is forecast to move off the SE Coast Tuesday
morning. Strong S winds and seas building to 8 ft can be 
expected N of 30N W of 75W. The front could be accompanied by 
showers and thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusty winds
and rough seas. The front will weaken as it heads SE Wed through
Thu night. High pressure will then slide NE from The Gulf of 
Mexico along the SE coast of the United States on Friday, 
supporting light to moderate winds in the region.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     Gale Warning Mon into Mon night. 
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.