Atlantic & Caribbean Outlook

National Hurricane Center Miami

        
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171904
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low over southeastern
Louisiana near 31N91W to 26N93W where it becomes a stationary 
front to just S of Tampico Mexico. A warm front extends from the
low east-southeastward to along the western Florida panhandle 
coast to just SE of Apalachicola. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are seen over much of southeastern Louisiana ahead 
of the front and extending into the far northern gulf waters N of
29N within about 60 nm E of the cold front. The western 
periphery of western Atlantic high pres stretches southwestward 
to the eastern gulf. The gradient between the high pres and the 
cold front is bringing moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the 
northern and central portions of the eastern and central gulf. 
Buoys and platforms over the NW Gulf indicate NW-N light to 
moderate winds behind the front, with seas of 3-5 ft. Seas 
elsewhere are similar, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft over the 
far SE portion and Straits of Florida.

The warm front will lift N of the area this afternoon while the
cold front stalls and transitions to a frontal trough. The trough
will then lift northwestward tonight to inland Texas early on 
Monday. Generally, light NE winds can be expected W of the 
trough. Once the trough moves onshore, mainly moderate SE flow 
will dominate the Gulf basin through early next week. High pres 
will settle in over the area tonight through Monday night, then 
slide eastward to the eastern gulf Tuesday night through Thursday
as a weak cold front moves across the northern waters and to E 
of the Gulf on Thursday. Moderate to fresh SW winds can be
expected ahead of the front, while gentle to moderate northerly
will follow in behind it. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W... 

High pressure to the N of the basin will remain sufficiently 
strong to support a tight pressure gradient over the central 
Caribbean through Tuesday, capable of producing nocturnal gale 
force NE winds within 60-90 nm of the of NW coast of Colombia. 
Fresh to strong E to NE winds are expected elsewhere over the 
central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage through this 
time frame. The high pressure will weaken Tuesday through 
Wednesday which will diminish winds by about 3-5 kt over the 
central Caribbean, likely keeping winds just below gale force N 
of NW Colombia Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday nights. 
The stronger winds early this week will be supporting seas to 15 
ft during the mornings through Tuesday morning, with a large area
of 8-12 ft extending across the central and SW Caribbean during 
that time. Elsewhere over the Caribbean, mainly moderate to 
locally fresh E to NE can be expected the next several days with 
generally dry conditions. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A stationary front extending from 28N65W to 25N73W and to the 
Central Bahamas will dissipate overnight tonight into Monday
morning. High pressure in the wake of the front will become 
centered just to the E of central Florida near 28N76W for Monday
and Tuesday. This pattern will support gentle winds and seas of 
3-5 ft N of 26N, with moderate to fresh NE winds S of 26N, with 
seas of 5-7 ft outside of the Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong NE
winds are expected between the SE Bahamas Hispaniola through late
Tuesday night. 
 
The high will weaken and shift SE Tuesday night, becoming 
centered east of the Bahamas near 25N70W for Wednesday and 
Thursday. This will allow for fairly benign marine conditions 
across the waters S of 31N and N of 23N during this time frame. 
The only exception will be the potential of a cold front to clip 
the waters N of 30N, which could increase winds later this week. 
S of 23N, the periphery of the high will support moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds Wednesday through Thursday. Mainly fresh NE-E
winds are expected near the approaches to the Windward Passage 
Wednesday through Friday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     Gale Warning tonight into Mon night. 

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.