Atlantic & Caribbean Outlook

National Hurricane Center Miami

        
000
AGXX40 KNHC 271819
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
219 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

High pressure northeast of the region will support moderate to
fresh southeast winds over the basin through Tuesday. The 
exception will be fresh to strong east to northeast winds tonight
associated with a thermal trough moving westward off the coast of
the Yucatan peninsula over the eastern Bay of Campeche. By
Tuesday night, low pressure will deepen as it moves eastward 
across the southern plains, and high pressure will settle across
the Bahamas. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the 
western Gulf Tuesday night through Wednesday with fresh to strong
southeast winds and seas building to 9 ft. The highest seas will
be across the northwestern Gulf. As the low continues eastward 
late this week, a cold front will cross the Gulf from west to 
east. Current forecast has the front entering the northwestern 
Gulf Thursday, then reaching the northeastern Gulf by Friday 
night, while remaining north of about 27N. Scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread east just ahead
of this front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

A weak pressure pattern continues over the Caribbean today 
thanks to the low pressure over the SW N Atlantic. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail over the Caribbean and will continue to do
so through Tuesday. High pressure will settle across the Bahamas
Tuesday night as the low moves northeast then east over the 
central Atlantic, which will help to increase the winds slightly 
across the Caribbean basin. The high will expand across the SW N 
Atlantic by Wednesday night which will cause fresh to strong 
winds to develop across the Gulf of Honduras through Friday. The 
high will then slide eastward by Friday night as a cold front 
approaches the southeast U.S. This will allow winds across the 
central Caribbean to increase to 15 to 20 kt during the Friday 
night through Saturday time period.

Mainly 5 to 7 ft seas will prevail over the tropical N Atlantic
forecast zones through the week along with moderate trade winds.
Late this week, winds are expected to decrease as the low
pressure passing north of the area brings a frontal trough near
the region north of 15N. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Low pressure of 1007 mb near 24N69W will meander slowly northward
through this evening, then will begin a more steady track
northeast overnight tonight. The low will then exit the 
northeast zone AMZ115 on Tuesday. Gale force north to northeast 
winds will continue within 100 and 250 nm north of the low 
center through Tuesday, which will maintain gale force winds 
over the northeast zone through tonight. The gale force winds 
will then shift east of the forecast zones on Tuesday, but will
remain over our high seas area. A broad area of Strong winds are
occurring across all quadrants of the low except the SE quadrant
with seas of 10 to 17 ft under this swath of strong to gale force
winds. The region of stronger winds will move in tandem with the 
low through Tuesday, with strong to near gale northerly winds 
persisting across the northeastern waters behind the departing 
low until early Tuesday night. Seas greater than 8 ft will linger
over the northeast zones behind the departing low until 
Wednesday evening.

High pressure will settle across the Bahamas by Tuesday night,
then expand in coverage through Wednesday night. The high will 
then slide east Thursday night as a cold front approaches the 
northwest waters. Current forecast has the cold front reaching 
the northwest waters Friday night, with fresh to strong southerly
winds developing on Friday over these waters well ahead of the 
front. 

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning today into tonight. 

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.