Atlantic & Caribbean Outlook

National Hurricane Center Miami

        
000
AGXX40 KNHC 270730
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
330 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

Ridging from the western Atlantic to the eastern Gulf along 28N
is shifting east ahead of a cold front is moving off the Texas 
coast and entering the far northwest Gulf. The front will stall from
near Mobile Bay to just north of Tampico Mexico near 23N98W, then
will lift north again as a weak warm front through Thursday
night. Southerly winds will increase to fresh to strong across 
the central and western Gulf Friday and Saturday, between the 
Atlantic ridge to the east and deepening low pressure moving 
from west Texas to the Central Plains, with seas building to 12 
ft over the northwest Gulf late Saturday. A trailing cold front 
moving through coastal Texas will enter the northwest Gulf early 
Sunday. The main forecast issue remains the chance of winds to 
minimal gale force off the coast of Veracruz on Sunday. The GFS 
has been trending toward this over the past several runs. The 
ECMWF from 12Z yesterday was stronger than earlier. Ensemble 
guidance is not very bullish yet on gales however. Will hold 
winds just below gale force for now off Veracruz Sunday. At any 
rate, the strong winds will be brief, as the front stalls and 
dissipates from central Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche 
through late Monday. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

A relatively weak pressure pattern continues due to the weakness
of the subtropical ridge north of the region. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds persist over the eastern Caribbean and the tropical 
north Atlantic waters west of 55W to the south of the high 
pressure ridge over the north central Atlantic. Gentle to 
moderate east to southeast winds are occurring over the central 
and western Caribbean. The ridge to the north is rebuilding, 
however. Localized fresh to strong winds will pulse near the Gulf
of Honduras and along the coast of northern Colombia during the 
overnight hours tonight. These pulses will grow in strength and 
areal extent by Friday night as the gradient tightens between 
strong ridging over the western Atlantic and troughing 
approaching from the west. By late Saturday, the building ridge 
to the north will support strong winds in the Windward Passage 
and south of Hispaniola near Cabo Beata as well. Fresh trade 
winds and building seas will generally prevail across the 
remainder of the region.
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Ridging extending along 28N will maintain gentle to moderate 
breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in the open Atlantic east of the 
Bahamas through Friday. Moderate to fresh trade winds will 
prevail south of 22N Saturday through Sunday. Southeast to south 
return flow will increase east of Florida north of 27N and west
of 75W by late Sunday as a cold front approaches the area from 
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, the gradient will
relax again early next week as the supporting upper dynamics
shift north of the area and the front dissipates.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.