RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 210511
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jose, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of
Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on Hurricane Maria, located less than
one hundred miles northeast of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the remnants
of Lee remain very limited. Upper-level winds are expected
to remain unfavorable for significant development during the next
several days. The low is forecast to move north-northwestward or
northward over the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)

...OUTER BANDS OF JOSE BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...
 As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Sep 21
 the center of Jose was located near 39.8, -67.8
 with movement ENE at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 982 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 63A

Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 210551
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 63A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
200 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...OUTER BANDS OF JOSE BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.8N 67.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 39.8 North, longitude 67.8 West.  Jose is
moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through
this afternoon.  A slow westward motion should begin tonight.  On
the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to meander off
the coast of southern New England during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.  The Nantucket Airport recently reported a gust to
47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the
warning area today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of
the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions during the next several days.  For more
information, please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Friday:

Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod...additional 1 to 2 inches.
Nantucket...additional 2 to 4 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 63

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 210251
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  63
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  68.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 200SE 180SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  68.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N  68.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 39.6N  67.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 39.5N  67.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 160SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.5N  68.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 150SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 39.4N  69.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 130SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.1N  69.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 39.0N  70.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N  68.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 63

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 210255
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  63
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

There has been little overall change to Jose's cloud pattern since
the previous advisory, as shallow convective bands remain over the
northern and western portions of the circulation. Some of these
bands are moving across portions of eastern Cape Cod, Martha's
Vineyard, and Nantucket.  The initial intensity has been reduced to
50 kt, which is supported by earlier aircraft data and a recent
partial ASCAT pass that showed peak winds of 40-45 kt

Water vapor imagery shows that the trough moving over eastern Canada
has now passed to the northeast of Jose.  As a result, the tropical
storm is beginning to slow down.  Jose is foreast to meander within
weak steering currents over the next day or so. After that time, the
cyclone is forecast to drift westward or southwestward as a ridge
builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone over the weekend.
There has been little change in the track guidance, and the new NHC
forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.

Cool sea surface temperatures, a drier mid-level airmass, and
increasing westerly shear should result in gradual weakening during
the next several days.  Jose is likely to lose its remaining
convection and become post-tropical in about 48 hours.  The global
models predict dissipation in 96 to 120 h, and the new NHC forecast
follows suit.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of extreme southeastern New England during the
next day or two, and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days. Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions for the next several days in these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 39.5N  68.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 39.6N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 39.5N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 39.5N  68.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 39.4N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  24/0000Z 39.1N  69.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0000Z 39.0N  70.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 63

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017


000
FONT12 KNHC 210253
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  63             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017               
0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
YARMOUTH NS    34  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CONCORD NH     34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
BOSTON MA      34  2   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  7   6(13)   5(18)   2(20)   3(23)   1(24)   X(24)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 12   8(20)   6(26)   3(29)   3(32)   2(34)   X(34)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  2   6( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   3(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  2   5( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 
ALBANY NY      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  3   5( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   4(17)   2(19)   X(19)
 
ISLIP NY       34  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Storm Jose Graphics


Tropical Storm Jose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 05:54:26 GMT

Tropical Storm Jose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 03:22:48 GMT

Local Statement for Boston, MA

Issued at  1116 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017


Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...MARIA REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO...
 As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Sep 21
 the center of Maria was located near 19.4, -68.2
 with movement NW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 959 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 20A

Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 210553
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
200 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...MARIA REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 68.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 68.2 West.  Maria is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through
tonight.  A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Friday.
On the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Maria will continue to
move away from Puerto Rico during the next several hours, and then
pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic
early today.  Maria should then move near the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening
is possible over the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).  Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic recently
reported a wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Strong gusty winds are still occurring over portions of
Puerto Rico, but should continue to gradually subside.  Tropical
storm or hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of the
warning areas in the Dominican Republic.  Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin in portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and
the southeastern Bahamas tonight, with tropical storm conditions
beginning in these areas later today.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels in Puerto Rico should continue receding
during the next few hours.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals through Saturday:

Puerto Rico...20 to 30 inches, isolated 35 inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 3 to 5 inches.
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and the
Southeastern Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches.

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are still affecting the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells are
also affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and should begin in the Southeastern Bahamas during
the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 20

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 210259
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  67.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 130SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  67.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  67.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N  68.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  55SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N  70.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.7N  71.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.8N  72.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N  72.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 32.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N  67.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 210300
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

The satellite presentation is a little better organized than
a few hours ago, and Maria now has a large ragged eye.  However,
data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the
winds are still 95 kt, while the central pressure has remained
unchanged oscillating near 959 mb.  Even with the current favorable
low-shear environment and warm ocean, it takes in general about 24
hours for the boundary layer of the hurricane to recover from the
passage over high terrain, in this case Puerto Rico.  In addition,
the reconnaissance plane reported two wind maxima and two concentric
eyewalls in the previous penetration, and it just reported that the
inner one has collapsed in the last fix.  This suggest that an
eyewall replacement cyclone has occurred.  With this complex
scenario, the NHC forecast allows for some small increase in
intensity as suggested by guidance and brings Maria back to category
3 status in about 24 hours.

Maria continues right on track, moving toward the northwest or 310
degrees at 8 kt.  The hurricane is expected to be steered
north-northwestward and northward around a subtropical ridge over
the Atlantic for the next 2 to 3 days. The only change to the
previous forecast is a small shift to the east by the end of the
forecast period as indicated by most of the track models.  By then,
Maria should have reached the northwestern edge of the ridge. The
NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and
very near the HFIP corrected consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is moving away from the northwestern coast of Puerto
Rico, and strong winds and storm surge flooding should continue to
subside through early Thursday.  However, heavy rainfall is expected
to continue, and catastrophic flash flooding is occurring on the
island, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.  Everyone in
Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to
avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 19.2N  67.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 19.9N  68.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 21.0N  70.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 22.3N  70.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 23.7N  71.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 26.8N  72.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 29.5N  72.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 32.0N  71.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017


000
FONT15 KNHC 210300
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   7(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)  17(38)   2(40)   X(40)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  2   6( 8)  30(38)  20(58)   4(62)   1(63)   X(63)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GRAND TURK     34  4  77(81)  16(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
GRAND TURK     50  1  32(33)  40(73)   3(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
GRAND TURK     64  X   9( 9)  36(45)   3(48)   X(48)   1(49)   X(49)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
LES CAYES      34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34 45  42(87)   1(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
PUERTO PLATA   50  2  17(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
PUERTO PLATA   64  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34 68   2(70)   1(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONCE PR       34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Hurricane Maria Graphics


Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 05:55:41 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 03:29:22 GMT

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at  1144 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017